Crewe Hire Dumbledore!

Crewe Alexandra hire Albus Dumbledore as manager.

 

In a bizarre twist of desperation, muggle football team Crewe Alexandra have appointed a legendary wizard as their new manager. With no footballing experience, Professor Albus Dumbledore comes as a surprise choice but will no doubt have some philosophies of his own to implement.

"I trust you will give me time as I learn the rules of this game, it seems it is quite dissimilar to Quidditch. You must also, however, have faith in my methods" he is reported as saying calmly in his press conference "My aim is to make Crewe Alexandra an impenetrable team. If we are not conceding goals, then we will not be losing matches. I specialise in my defensive methods, and I hope to complete the whole season without losing a single game"

A brave and ambitious statement to say the least, noted in the room by the throng of journalists chuckling and talking between themselves. However, as he sat there calmly looking over his half-moon spectacles, Dumbledore remained unphased - simply picking up his glass of water and taking a small sip.

 

Famed for his wizarding genius and a brilliant judge of character, when asked about his transfer policy, Dumbledore simply said the following;

"The team here is a young one. There are no outstanding individuals, but we have many boys who have grown up together and have developed a friendship greater than money can buy. I am of the belief that this will be the key to the teams success, and I have no intention of bringing in anybody new"

It remains to be seen whether this is a stroke of genius from the Crewe Alexandra board, or whether they have finally lost their minds. Hiring a manager who does not know the rules of the game, will not be signing any new players and claiming to go unbeaten all season may sway you to think that they have indeed gone mad - but there is something quite magical about Professor Dumbledore. He is calm, he is confident, and though it is easy to suggest he has no idea what he is going on about, he cannot yet be written off. It isn't impossible to consider the fact that he might just have what it takes to develop the key to success.

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Brazil 2014 Watertight Predictions

I've done a little bit of research into the history of the World Cup, and based on the previous 19 tournaments I have predicted who will win, who will be runner up and who will be the top scorer. I trust you'll read this with an appropriate amount of ignorance and naïvity.

Winner
Of the 19 previous World Cups, 6 of them have been hosted in South America. Each and every time there has been a South American host, the winner has also been from South America - thus history giving us a 100% chance of South America providing the winner for this World Cup. In fact, only once when the World Cup has been hosted outside of Europe has a European team been successful (Spain in South Africa '10). It's also worth noting that only twice has a team managed to win two successive World Cups (Italy '34, '38 & Brazil '58, '62) which rules out arguably the strongest European side, Spain.

Because of this, I will automatically whittle the winner down to be one of the following countries;
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Uruguay

The host country of the World Cup has previously won on 6 occasions (Uruguay '30, Italy '34, England '66, West Germany '74, Argentina '78 and France '98)

This is equal to 31.58% of the time. In a competition with 32 teams, I like those odds and so Brazil have to be seriously considered.

Brazil have hosted the tournament once before, and that was when Uruguay won the cup in 1950. They beat Brazil in the final.

Let's have a look at each South American country and their World Cup records;
Argentina - Winner 1978, 1986
Brazil - Winner 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002
Chile - 3rd place, 1962
Colombia - Round of 16, 1990
Ecuador - Round of 16, 2006
Uruguay - Winner 1930, 1950

With this in mind, I am going to take Chile, Colombia and Ecuador out of the running as none of them have won the World Cup before - I appreciate that it is absolutely possible for there to be a unique winner this year, but in order to eliminate some candidates I am ignoring that possibility.

Therefore the winner of the World Cup 2014 will be either Argentina, Brazil or Uruguay.

I am going to rule out Uruguay because they have not won the Cup for 64 years, whereas Argentina and Brazil have won it more recently. It's also worth noting that Uruguay only qualified for the competition via the playoffs, finishing behind all of the other South American qualifiers.

Argentina are well in with a shout. They topped the South American qualifiers and have some of the best players in the world in their squad.

Looking at the head to head record between Argentina and Brazil doesn't give us a clear answer. In 95 games, they have drawn 24 and Argentina have won 36 - meaning Brazil have won 35. There is very little between them.

However, as Brazil have won the cup 5 times previously, and have won it most recently of the South American sides, they are on home soil and generally look like a decent outfit, I hereby declare Brazil as the winners of the World Cup this year!


Runner Up
Uruguay have never lost in the World Cup Final. Brazil and Argentina have both been runner-up on two occasions. However, history suggests that when a tournament is played in South America, the runner up will be from Europe (4 times, 66.66%). In the 9 instances of a South American team winning the World cup, they have beaten European opposition in the Final 7 times (77.77%). Thus, odds are that the Final will consist of one South American team and one European team.

Of the European teams in the competition this year, the team to have reached the most finals is Germany with a grand total of 7 - four times being the runner-up. Thus history suggests that it is most likely for Germany to reach the final, and be beaten once they get there. Holland have never won the World Cup, but have been beaten in the final three times - so if they do well they have a strong chance of being the bridesmaid once more. Italy have reached a total of 6 finals, but tend to win them more often than not at a score of 4-2.

On this basis, your runner up for the World Cup this year will be Germany! For this to occur, however, we would need either Brazil or Germany to finish 2nd in their group as they will be meeting in the Semi-Final otherwise. This isn't entirely impossible as Germany are in the same group as Portugal, who may do well.

Top Scorer
The prize of top goalscorer is an interesting one, as history suggests that the person who scores the most goals tends not to be from a team who compete in the finals. Of the 19 World Cups played, on 4 occasions the overall winner has had the top scorer (1962, 1978, 1982 and 2002), and the runner-up has also had the top scorer on 4 occasions (1930, 1934, 1950, 1954) which means that 11 times out of 19 the top scorer will come from a team who do not play in the final.

Of the two most recent World Cups, the top scorer has been German (Klose in 2006, Muller in 2010) - but as they are in the final this time round, we shall discount them. With this in mind, I'll need to have a look at the top goalscorers from qualifying.

11 Goals - Robin Van Persie (NED), Luis Suarez (URU)
10 Goals - Edin Dzeko (BIH), Lionel Messi (ARG), Oribe Peralta (MEX)
9 Goals - Gonzalo Higuain (ARG), Radamel Falcao (COL), Jerry Bengston (HON)

I'm going to immediately discount the South American teams from this, as they played 6 extra games than those competing in the European qualification process, giving them an inferior goals-per-game ratio.

I'm also going to ignore Oribe Peralta of Mexico and Jerry Bengston of Honduras because the North American qualifying system involves more than the 10 games shown in the final table. In fact, if we look at the goals scored in the final section of qualifying we'll see that Bengston only scored 4 goals, and Peralta 3.

The top 5 European goalscorers are therefore the follwing;
11 Goals - Robin Van Persie (NED)
10 Goals - Edin Dzeko (BIH)
8 Goals - Vedad Ibisevic (BIH), Mesut Ozil (GER), Cristiano Ronaldo (POR)

I shall now look at how these players did this season for their club team;
Robin Van Persie - Manchester United - 18 Goals
Edin Dzeko - Manchester City - 26 Goals
Vedad Ibizevic - VfB Stuttgart - 15 Goals
Mesut Ozil - Arsenal - 7 Goals
Cristiano Ronaldo - Real Madrid - 51 Goals

I am going to discount Ibizevic here because there is somebody from the same nation with more goals than he has. I am also going to discount Ozil because of his poor scoring record for Arsenal.

It's now worth considering the World Cup opponents of the remaining three players.

Netherlands are in a group with Chile, Spain and Australia. It will be difficult for them to score a lot against either the reigning World Champions, or the South American team. If Van Persie is going to get a few goals early on, it will be the game against Australia in which he gets them. 

Bosnia play against Iran and Nigeria, as well as a strong Argentina side. I can imagine them picking up a few goals against the lower ranked duo and so I am tempted to say that Dzeko will have a good chance of netting the top scorer award. Also if they qualify they will play in the next round against a team from Group H, which isn't a particularly strong group either (France, Switzerland, Ecuador & Honduras).

Portugal play the runners-up-to-be, Germany, as well as Ghana and the USA. They should do well against the Americans, and Ghana won't pose too much of a threat. Ronaldo could pick some goals up early on, and so I believe it'll be between him and Dzeko for the Golden Boot.

So how do I split the two? It's obvious that Cristiano Ronaldo is the better player. Scoring 51 goals in a season is a serious achievement, but his Portugal team finished 2nd in their qualifying group behind Russia with an average of two goals per game. Bosnia won their group and scored an average of 3 goals per game - which makes them more likely to get the goals.

In 110 games for Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 49 times - this works out as a goal in 44.54% of his games played for the national side.

In 66 games for Bosnia, Dzeko has scored 33 times. He has scored in 50% of games played.

There really isn't a lot to split the two, so I shall look at their respective teams World Cup history. In doing this, we have to consider Bosnia & Herzigovina as 'Yugoslavia' otherwise we find that they have never qualified for the World Cup - having only been legible since 1994.

Both Portugal and Yugoslavia have had a top scorer in the competition once;

In 1962, Yugoslavian Drazan Jerkovic was the joint top scorer. The competition was held in Chile and the winner of the competition was Brazil. 

In 1966, a chap by the name of Eusebio did pretty well for Portugal and claimed the top scorer award. The winner of this competition was England, who were also the home nation. 

As Brazil are going to win this tournament and it is being held in South America, mirroring the outcome of the 1962 World Cup - I hereby declare Edin Dzeko as the top scorer of the upcoming tournament!

1st Place - Brazil

Runner Up - Germany

Top Goalscorer - Edin Dzeko

The Return of QPR

I was at Wembley to watch QPR overcome Derby in the Playoff Final yesterday, and was amongst the QPR fans when Bobby Zamora hit the back of the net in the last minute of normal time.

The game itself was a tense affair. The first half was very even, and it seemed obvious that neither team wanted to commit too many men forwards as it came to a close at 0-0. The moment that changed the game was O'Neil's red card in the 60th minute. At the time it looked like a straight red, and it was no surprise to me to see the referee pull that card out of his top pocket.

Derby had started the second half brightly, and the challenge O'Neil made was one of pure desperation as he was never going to reach the ball. It is questionable if he was indeed the last man, but he had no intent to win it and he prevented a clear goal scoring opportunity. It was a silly challenge, and the pressure Derby put on for the rest of the half was relentless.

That said, there were only a couple of times when I feared they may score. They had a few half chances, but nothing clear cut and Rob Green was dominant in his box, as well as having the wall of Onuoha and Dunne in front of him. Dunne in particular was rewarded with the man of the match award, having performed his duties admirably.

The second half was essentially attack vs defence, with QPR sitting back and dealing with everything Derby had to throw at them. Having won many games this season 1-0, QPR were well equipped for a tight finish and as the minutes rolled on it felt like we were heading to extra time.

At one point I said to the chap sitting next to me "just imagine if QPR sneak one" and he laughed at me. He said it'd be brilliant, but that it was simply not going to happen. The Rangers fans were resigned to clinging on, and were hoping to reach penalties.

But then that man, Bobby Zamora, placed the ball into the top corner of the goal with an instinctive left foot strike, capitalising on a bad touch from the Derby centre back. The elation, jubilation, relief and pure ecstasy felt in the stands was something I will never forget. Everybody was hugging everybody, and nobody could quite believe what had just happened. Of all players, Bobby bloody Zamora had scored the winner! 

He had fallen out of favour with the QPR fans the last time I'd seen them play. Against Bolton he had come on as a sub when there were chants of "How shit must you be? Zamora's up front!". It looked as though he would be amongst those being shipped out at the end of the season, and nobody would have questioned it.

This one goal for Zamora that secured QPRs return to the Premiership has seen his reputation transformed. Yes, the elation of the game had everybody in high spirits, and that may be a factor - but it looks as though Bobby is getting a new contract when it seemed so unlikely just a few months ago. Football really is a fickle game.

I had a tremendous time at Wembley. Being a Crewe fan, I've never been to a game so important. Yes I've seen Crewe promoted at Wembley, and I've seen them raise the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, but neither of these are worth hundreds of millions to one club. This was another level.

I will be following QPR next season, and I hope they do well. They loaned a lot of players out this season, so will have to cut down their squad but they will also need to strengthen in a few areas. Of those returning from loan I'd like to think Remy will stay on and strike up a partnership with Charlie Austin. They'll need to improve their defensive options, but generally they've got the make of a decent squad and should be competitive. 

I am not a running machine

For lent this year I decided that rather than to give anything up, I would attempt to run 60 miles in 40 days. I did very well, I thought - until I acquired a small injury known as runner's knee. This unfortunately left me 20 miles short with 10 days remaining, and though, like a wounded soldier battling on, I pushed through an extra 4 or 5 miles from there - I was not to succeed in my little challenge.

Since then it has been a losing battle. I have barely been for a run since.

You have to bear in mind here that lent ended on 19th April. I had failed to meet my targets, and had therefore lost the will and reason to run.

Did I like that I'd lost weight? Yes. Did I feel healthier and more positive? Yes.

But I had failed.

I was never a keen long distance runner. I'd go so far as to say I have hated running in the past. I don't really enjoy it nowadays either, but I do understand the benefits.

Google tells me that resting for a few days is best for runner's knee, and so that is exactly what I did. 'A few days' is a matter of perspective. In a fortnight I'd say a few would be anywhere between 2 and 5 days. From when the injury occurred (roughly 9th April) I had successfully rested that knee for a total of 42 days. I decided to consider the term 'a few days' as something in comparison to 10 years. 10 years is equal to 3652 days, and so by comparison I'd say that 42 constitutes that 'few'.

In this time I did a lot of knee resting, working mostly on my ability to eat and play playstation - two qualities, I think you'll find, that are just as beneficial as running. I even bought the new Super Car in GTA 5 online. What an acheivement!

But alas, I cuoldn't put it off much longer - so on Wednesday I decided the time was right to venture out for that run. I knew I'd be rusty, but I strapped up the bad knee and set off before breakfast. I was only planning on heading out for a mile or two, but did entertain the idea of stretching that to 3 miles should I feel up for it.

Before too long, I noticed that I was not, in fact, up for it. My knee was fine, but the slight belly I'd acquired over the previous 6 weeks had made running a lot more difficult that I'd remembered. Had I really forgotten how to run?!

I managed about 200 yards before feeling out of breath.

'Pace yourself Joe' I thought 'it's not a sprint'

So I plodded on. I plodded right past some dog walkers and some runners heading in the other direction. I was overtaken only by cyclists, which is allowed (though I did try to keep up with one particularly slow cyclist lady) I ended up doing a painful 2 miles. I felt sick and as though I was going to collapse, but I was proud of myself. I'd done it after six weeks, I would surely get back into the running spirit now - but then the voice in my headphones told me that the pace I was going at was 30 seconds per mile slower than I had been on my last run. 30 seconds per mile slower at half the distance. Misery.

So here I am, sat at work contemplating my next run and ultimately finding excuses along the way.. "Oh no, I'll be hungover on that day" and "I can't possibly go out then, it'd make my day too long" etc. No motivation makes running particularly difficult.

But then I say "Bugger it! I'm gonna go and run tomorrow, and I'm going to hate it" - because running is there to be hated, but if I stop I'll have to start all over again - and I don't want that. And besides, there are no new Super Cars on GTA to buy just yet...

...and tomorrow comes along, I accidentally wake up too late and before I know it, 42 days have passed.

What if Falcao misses the World Cup?

 

Colombia are preparing for their first World Cup in 16 years, and having been very strong in qualifying they have every chance of doing quite well this year.. It is without doubt, however, that the injury to Radamel Falcao, who hasn't kicked a ball since January, is not likely to be his sharp self if he even makes it into the final squad at all.

But is it all doom and gloom if he does not make it there?

In short, no.

It's no doubt that Falcao's presence will be missed, not only by Colombia, but by football fans across the world. This competition is the greatest footballing competition on earth, and the very best players should be on show - but perhaps it might just give the other Colombian forwards a chance to shine.

Looking at the players in and around the Colombia squad 10 years ago, you see that they were strong in defence. The likes of Ivan Cordoba and Mario Yepes were in their prime and playing at top European clubs - but they had no goalscoring threat. Nowadays, that is quite the opposite - highlighted by the fact that Yepes remains in the heart of their defence at the ripe old age of 38 and their backup 'keeper is Faryd Mondragon who made his debut in 1993. He's now 42..!

These days they have an abundance of attacking players who are making a name for themselves in Europe, and who would be desperate to prove themselves if given the chance to come out of El Tigre's shadow;

Jackson Martinez is often deployed as Falcao's back up, but has not scored many coming off the bench. I feel like he is linked with top clubs every summer, and has scored 29 goals in 51 games in all competitions for Porto this season. He's a man on form, he knows how to score and he has played in the big competitions.

Teo Gutierrez often played alongside Falcao and they worked together well, between them scoring more than half of Colombia's goals in qualifying - but will he be able to have that same kind of partnership with somebody else? I'm not so sure..

There's Fredy Montero who hasn't even made the 30 man squad but was making a name for himself in the MLS before going on loan to Sporting in the Portuguese league, scoring 13 goals in 16 games! They've got Carlos Bacca who's scored in 50% of his matches played for Sevilla in Spain. Luis Muriel and Victor Ibarbo playing in Italy - who both know how to find the net. Adrian Ramos playing in Germany, James Rodriguez, teammate of El Tigre himself, although not a striker also is a threat to any defence with his pace and trickery. The list goes on..!

So no, it is not doom and gloom is Falcao doesn't make it. A shame? Absolutely. But not a disaster. It might even spur them on to greater hights, with so many players having something to prove.. Their Manager is no slouch, and has turned them into a very difficult team to beat. In the heat of Brazil, you have to assume that the South American teams will do well - and so there should be no doubt that Colombia are a genuine contender this year, with our without their main man.

Wine and Fish

I'm not one to brag (lie), or try and envoke envy in another person (lie), so I'm going to tell you very briefly and with as much subtlety as I can (lie.. again) about my weekend.

I woke up at 3:30am on Friday morning to set off to the airport, as I was to spend my weekend in a place called Le Muy which is somewhere near Nice and St Tropez in the south of France. Sorry about that.. There was good weather in England though, so I didn't feel too guilty.

I wont run through every single thing that went on over the weekend, but I will tell you that I had a marvellous time sitting in the sun, drinking wine, limoncello and anything going really. Ate brilliant food, listened to some jazz and had great company - though I was lacking in a certain Colombian, and lost out to my Uncle when we went head to head on the go-karts, the bastard.

Upon my return to London life, I discovered that unfortunately I'd lost another fish! Gavin II decided that he no longer had the will to carry on, and popped his proverbial clogs whilst I was away. I was never particularly attached to Gavin II, so wasn't exactly sad. In reality I missed Gavin I, so I have replaced Gavin II with a fish called Gavin III, who looks identical to Gavin I. We also purchased Eric II, replacing Eric I who left us a couple of weeks back.

So now our tank is Gavin III, Eric II and Cheese - who is about twice the size of the other two. Hopefully they'll be with us for a good while yet!

Look at them! Eric II is the orange and black one, Gavin III is white with an orange hat and Cheese is the orange whale.

The Crewe Philosophy

I'm proud to be a Crewe fan. I'm proud that we tend to blood local youngsters and have a reputation for developing local lads into first team regulars, and potential England stars.

With that in mind, here are some players I'd like you to keep an eye on in the future, who I hope will have a breakthrough season next year;

Ryan 'Coco' Colclough - I first saw him play in the JPT Final last year, and thought he looked excellent for the time he was on the pitch. Unfortunately he has struggled with injuries this season, but will hopefully kick on in 2014/15 and prove himself to be a very valuable asset. I can imagine him making the step up to the Premiership in the next few years.

Matt Tootle - A hard working fullback who can play on either side, and Crewe's player of the season last year. At 23 he should be ready now to test himself in the Championship or Premiership. Would like to see someone take a punt on him, and I can imagine him going to a team like Burnley or Huddersfield. Maybe even one for Aston Villa, following his former teammate Ashley Westwood there.

George Ray - A tall central defender, who also plays for the Wales U21 squad. I like the look of this kid, but he's got a few more years to develop yet. I'm hoping he gets to be first choice centre back for this coming season, and who knows where he can go from there?

I've intentionally left out Max Clayton as I don't think he'll quite cut it. He reminds me a little of a young Nicky Maynard, who managed to put the ball in the net regularly but never quite filled his potential. I like the kid and think he'll do something with his career, but he hasn't yet been a 20-goal kind of forward and if he can't do that at Crewe, I worry whether he can do that on a bigger stage. His contract is up this summer, and it is unknown as yet whether he'll stay on. I hope he does, and I hope he proves me wrong as he needs a big season before moving away.

Joe's England 23

With the England World Cup squad to be announced in under 3 hours time, here is who I reckon will make it onto the plane;

Goalkeepers;
Joe Hart
Fraser Forster
Ben Foster

Defenders;
Glen Johnson
Phil Jones
Chris Smalling
Phil Jagielka
Gary Cahill
Leighton Baines
Luke Shaw

Midfielders;
Steven Gerrard
Ross Barkley
Jack Wilshere
Jordan Henderson
Raheem Sterling
Adam Lallana
James Milner
Michael Carrick
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Forwards;
Rickie Lambert
Wayne Rooney
Daniel Sturridge
Danny Welbeck

I'm comfortable with most of that squad, keeping in mind the fact that Kyle Walker has been injured since March and Ashley Cole has announced his retirement from the international game. I worry that Woy will find space for Lampard ahead of maybe Oxlade-Chamberlain, but hopefully he wont. I reluctantly put Wilshere in here, though personally I'd prefer the likes of Barry or Carrick instead. I imagine some younger players will be amongst the 7 reserves - players like Flanagan, Stones and Caulker.

But we will see! At 2 o'clock we'll find out how accurate my estimates are...

The Thoughts of Today

Hello Blogworld,

Today I have my usual busy Saturday. I wake up, do my Spanish homework then head to the lesson, from which I go straight to work. I will stay at work for the rest of the day.

I haven't really written a lot since my initial spurt of blogliness, and feel it is about time I decided to do a wee update.

Football Manager
My RB Leipzig file still exists, and I fully intend on playing it soon - but I have been so preoccupied with my other save file (a Wigan one where I have just gained promotion to the Premiership) that I haven't played a lot with RB. But panic not! Tomorrow is a Sunday, which means awesome times of doing nothing but sitting around and watching telly and playing Football Manager or GTA5.

Formula 1
This weekend is a Formula 1 weekend, and myself and Dave have conducted 'The Coin Flipping'
Here are the results;

My initial guess it that I'll win 8-3, but we shall see. Anything can happen on race day.. I put a cheeky flutter on Ricciardo grabbing the victory, but that'll only happen if Mercedes fail to finish. At 18/1, I figured it was worth the punt.

I'm not a huge fan of the Spanish GP, but it is the first of the season that is actually televised at a reasonable time, and with it being 3 weeks since the last race there tends to be a lot of upgrades to the cars. Noticably in qualifying, the Lotus seems to have sorted itself out a little bit - though Maldonado is still shit.

Football
The last day of the Premier League season is tomorrow! It looks a lot like Man City will grab the title, though I'd be delighted if Liverpool managed to take it. Barring a win of about 100-0 against Arsenal, Norwich are relegated, and Manchester United with Giggsy at the helm may just pip Tottenham into 6th place and European Football next season. All will be revealed tomorrow!

The Merry Month of May

My May
By Me

My May this year, will be full of fun,
With plenty of laughs and many things done,

To start, this weekend, I head back to Hastings,
Where the dancers who morris ring bells and hit things,
Where the Bogeys and Sweeps parade to the drums,
and the drinkers will rejoice, just as Summer comes,

Following from there I have a week back to normal,
Back to work, being professional, and being all formal,
Only for that to be ruined on a night at the Lane,
With a Kid who is Shit, as old Spurs meet again,

Just days after that I have a quick trip to France,
But this without my lady, in the country of romance,
Alas it'll be jolly, be swinging and great,
Because my Grandpa has a birthday beginning with eight!

More expensive than most, days after I get home,
A night on the town where the theatre folk roam,
Where old songs from Europe are presented to all,
West End Eurovision is going to be a ball!

Now the next is uncertain, as it depends on the the score,
But if success comes along, then to Wembley I'll tour,
To support with my Buddy, the team that he favours,
The Hoops, he calls them. I say Queens Park Rangers.

The week after that I'll head to Wembley once more,
With the Kid who is Shit, Buddy, Josh - just us four,
As a battle is to be viewed between two giants of the ring,
Froch versus Groves, one on one, a battle of boxing,

..and that is my month, my merry little May,
In June is the World Cup. Not too bad, hey?